USD/CAD: US Dollar - Canadian Dollar Rate, Chart & Analysis

@AlphaexCapital : USDCAD above 100 bar MA on 4-hour chart for the first time since June 18 https://t.co/2Q6eIPSVvs #forex #forextrading #investing

@AlphaexCapital : USDCAD above 100 bar MA on 4-hour chart for the first time since June 18 https://t.co/2Q6eIPSVvs #forex #forextrading #investing submitted by AlphaexCapital to AlphaexCapital [link] [comments]

2.5 years and 145 backtested trades later

I have a habit of backtesting every strategy I find as long as it makes sense. I find it fun, and even if the strategy ends up being underperforming, it gives me a good excuse to gain valuable chart experience that would normally take years to gather. After I backtest something, I compare it to my current methodology, and usually conclude that mine is better either because it has a better performance or the new method requires too much time to manage (Spoiler: until now, I like this better)
During the last two days, I have worked on backtesting ParallaxFx strategy, as it seemed promising and it seemed to fit my personality (a lazy fuck who will happily halve his yearly return if it means he can spend 10% less time in front of the screens). My backtesting is preliminary, and I didn't delve very deep in the data gathering. I usually track all sort of stuff, but for this first pass, I sticked to the main indicators of performance over a restricted sample size of markets.
Before I share my results with you, I always feel the need to make a preface that I know most people will ignore.
Strategy
I am not going to go into the strategy in this thread. If you haven't read the series of threads by the guy who shared it, go here.
As suggested by my mentioned personality type, I went with the passive management options of ParallaxFx's strategy. After a valid setup forms, I place two orders of half my risk. I add or remove 1 pip from each level to account for spread.
Sample
I tested this strategy over the seven major currency pairs: AUDUSD, USDCAD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURUSD, USDCHF. The time period started on January 1th 2018 and ended on July 1th 2020, so a 2.5 years backtest. I tested over the D1 timeframe, and I plan on testing other timeframes.
My "protocol" for backtesting is that, if I like what I see during this phase, I will move to the second phase where I'll backtest over 5 years and 28 currency pairs.
Units of measure
I used R multiples to track my performance. If you don't know what they are, I'm too sleepy to explain right now. This article explains what they are. The gist is that the results you'll see do not take into consideration compounding and they normalize volatility (something pips don't do, and why pips are in my opinion a terrible unit of measure for performance) as well as percentage risk (you can attach variable risk profiles on your R values to optimize position sizing in order to maximize returns and minimize drawdowns, but I won't get into that).
Results
I am not going to link the spreadsheet directly, because it is in my GDrive folder and that would allow you to see my personal information. I will attach screenshots of both the results and the list of trades. In the latter, I have included the day of entry for each trade, so if you're up to the task, you can cross-reference all the trades I have placed to make sure I am not making things up.
Overall results: R Curve and Segmented performance.
List of trades: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. Something to note: I treated every half position as an individual trade for the sake of simplicity. It should not mess with the results, but it simply means you will see huge streaks of wins and losses. This does not matter because I'm half risk in each of them, so a winstreak of 6 trades is just a winstreak of 3 trades.
For reference:
Thoughts
Nice. I'll keep testing. As of now it is vastly better than my current strategy.
submitted by Vanguer to Forex [link] [comments]

Why is the US dollar weakening relative to other currencies such as the EUR or CAD?

For instance:
EUUSD: https://www.finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=EURUSD
or
CAD/USD: https://www.finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDCAD&tf=d1
submitted by PeleMaradona to AskEconomics [link] [comments]

TODAY’S USD STRENGTH AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS

TODAY’S USD STRENGTH AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS
Today in the main session forex trading the USD was strong on all pairs in this currency group. This drove strong price movements during the main trading session. Images of the live forex trading signals from The Forex Heatmap® and price chart movement for these pairs is shown below. The USD/CAD moved higher on the H1/H4 time frames. We cannot tell if larger time frame trends will develop on this pair so scale out lots on any buys. The AUD/USD also dropped on the H1 time frame. Once again we cannot tell if larger trends may develop going down, so scale out lots on any sells. These live currency trading signals and trend based trading plans for 28 pairs can be found on our website at Forexearlywarning.com.
https://www.forexearlywarning.com/the-forex-heatmap

https://preview.redd.it/jvtaelofa1t41.jpg?width=567&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=52c676ea3cc6b3cd40b139289624d4f96b830b0e
https://preview.redd.it/a0ew2tofa1t41.jpg?width=427&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b6e5d1c3dcd3c0b657ea5578cac0c475da5e0bb0
#USDCAD #AUDUSD #forexsignals #forextrading #trading #daytrading #forexalerts #currencytrading #forex US Dollar USD/CAD AUD/USD
submitted by forexalerts to u/forexalerts [link] [comments]

TODAY’S USD STRENGTH AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS

TODAY’S USD STRENGTH AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS
Today in the main session forex trading the USD was strong on all pairs in this currency group. This drove strong price movements during the main trading session. Images of the live forex trading signals from The Forex Heatmap® and price chart movement for these pairs is shown below. The EUUSD dropped on the H4/D1 time frames, it has more potential to drop on the D1 time frame down to the 1.0800 support area. The USD/CAD rose into the strong uptrend. This pair has very little resistance left on the MN time frame, so the trends suggest it could go much higher. These live currency trading signals and trend based trading plans for 28 pairs can be found on our website at Forexearlywarning.com.
https://www.forexearlywarning.com/the-forex-heatmap


https://preview.redd.it/f0l1wv79ncn41.jpg?width=425&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dbe8f47356753014461db29d669f43b64009ed7c
https://preview.redd.it/8w7x4x79ncn41.jpg?width=533&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=90d9a8bcb00cdb1cfba8bb0eecd0dd682a81d7e5
#EURUSD #USDCAD #forexsignals #forextrading #trading #daytrading #forexalerts #currencytrading #forex US Dollar EUUSD USD/CAD
submitted by forexalerts to u/forexalerts [link] [comments]

How to get started in Forex - A comprehensive guide for newbies

Almost every day people come to this subreddit asking the same basic questions over and over again. I've put this guide together to point you in the right direction and help you get started on your forex journey.

A quick background on me before you ask: My name is Bob, I'm based out of western Canada. I started my forex journey back in January 2018 and am still learning. However I am trading live, not on demo accounts. I also code my own EA's. I not certified, licensed, insured, or even remotely qualified as a professional in the finance industry. Nothing I say constitutes financial advice. Take what I'm saying with a grain of salt, but everything I've outlined below is a synopsis of some tough lessons I've learned over the last year of being in this business.

LET'S GET SOME UNPLEASANTNESS OUT OF THE WAY

I'm going to call you stupid. I'm also going to call you dumb. I'm going to call you many other things. I do this because odds are, you are stupid, foolish,and just asking to have your money taken away. Welcome to the 95% of retail traders. Perhaps uneducated or uninformed are better phrases, but I've never been a big proponent of being politically correct.

Want to get out of the 95% and join the 5% of us who actually make money doing this? Put your grown up pants on, buck up, and don't give me any of this pc "This is hurting my feelings so I'm not going to listen to you" bullshit that the world has been moving towards.

Let's rip the bandage off quickly on this point - the world does not give a fuck about you. At one point maybe it did, it was this amazing vision nicknamed the American Dream. It died an agonizing, horrible death at the hand of capitalists and entrepreneurs. The world today revolves around money. Your money, my money, everybody's money. People want to take your money to add it to theirs. They don't give a fuck if it forces you out on the street and your family has to live in cardboard box. The world just stopped caring in general. It sucks, but it's the way the world works now. Welcome to the new world order. It's called Capitalism.

And here comes the next hard truth that you will need to accept - Forex is a cruel bitch of a mistress. She will hurt you. She will torment you. She will give you nightmares. She will keep you awake at night. And then she will tease you with a glimmer of hope to lure you into a false sense of security before she then guts you like a fish and shows you what your insides look like. This statement applies to all trading markets - they are cruel, ruthless, and not for the weak minded.

The sooner you accept these truths, the sooner you will become profitable. Don't accept it? That's fine. Don't bother reading any further. If I've offended you I don't give a fuck. You can run back home and hide under your bed. The world doesn't care and neither do I.

For what it's worth - I am not normally an major condescending asshole like the above paragraphs would suggest. In fact, if you look through my posts on this subreddit you will see I am actually quite helpful most of the time to many people who come here. But I need you to really understand that Forex is not for most people. It will make you cry. And if the markets themselves don't do it, the people in the markets will.

LESSON 1 - LEARN THE BASICS

Save yourself and everybody here a bunch of time - learn the basics of forex. You can learn the basics for free - BabyPips has one of the best free courses online which explains what exactly forex is, how it works, different strategies and methods of how to approach trading, and many other amazing topics.

You can access the BabyPips course by clicking this link: https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex

Do EVERY course in the School of Pipsology. It's free, it's comprehensive, and it will save you from a lot of trouble. It also has the added benefit of preventing you from looking foolish and uneducated when you come here asking for help if you already know this stuff.

If you still have questions about how forex works, please see the FREE RESOURCES links on the /Forex FAQ which can be found here: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/wiki/index

Quiz Time
Answer these questions truthfully to yourself:

-What is the difference between a market order, a stop order, and a limit order?
-How do you draw a support/resistance line? (Demonstrate it to yourself)
-What is the difference between MACD, RSI, and Stochastic indicators?
-What is fundamental analysis and how does it differ from technical analysis and price action trading?
-True or False: It's better to have a broker who gives you 500:1 margin instead of 50:1 margin. Be able to justify your reasoning.

If you don't know to answer to any of these questions, then you aren't ready to move on. Go back to the School of Pipsology linked above and do it all again.

If you can answer these questions without having to refer to any kind of reference then congratulations, you are ready to move past being a forex newbie and are ready to dive into the wonderful world of currency trading! Move onto Lesson 2 below.

LESSON 2 - RANDOM STRANGERS ARE NOT GOING TO HELP YOU GET RICH IN FOREX

This may come as a bit of a shock to you, but that random stranger on instagram who is posting about how he is killing it on forex is not trying to insprire you to greatness. He's also not trying to help you. He's also not trying to teach you how to attain financial freedom.

99.99999% of people posting about wanting to help you become rich in forex are LYING TO YOU.

Why would such nice, polite people do such a thing? Because THEY ARE TRYING TO PROFIT FROM YOUR STUPIDITY.

Plain and simple. Here's just a few ways these "experts" and "gurus" profit from you:


These are just a few examples. The reality is that very few people make it big in forex or any kind of trading. If somebody is trying to sell you the dream, they are essentially a magician - making you look the other way while they snatch your wallet and clean you out.

Additionally, on the topic of fund managers - legitimate fund managers will be certified, licensed, and insured. Ask them for proof of those 3 things. What they typically look like are:

If you are talking to a fund manager and they are insisting they have all of these, get a copy of their verification documents and lookup their licenses on the directories of the issuers to verify they are valid. If they are, then at least you are talking to somebody who seems to have their shit together and is doing investment management and trading as a professional and you are at least partially protected when the shit hits the fan.


LESSON 3 - UNDERSTAND YOUR RISK

Many people jump into Forex, drop $2000 into a broker account and start trading 1 lot orders because they signed up with a broker thinking they will get rich because they were given 500:1 margin and can risk it all on each trade. Worst-case scenario you lose your account, best case scenario you become a millionaire very quickly. Seems like a pretty good gamble right? You are dead wrong.

As a new trader, you should never risk more than 1% of your account balance on a trade. If you have some experience and are confident and doing well, then it's perfectly natural to risk 2-3% of your account per trade. Anybody who risks more than 4-5% of their account on a single trade deserves to blow their account. At that point you aren't trading, you are gambling. Don't pretend you are a trader when really you are just putting everything on red and hoping the roulette ball lands in the right spot. It's stupid and reckless and going to screw you very quickly.

Let's do some math here:

You put $2,000 into your trading account.
Risking 1% means you are willing to lose $20 per trade. That means you are going to be trading micro lots, or 0.01 lots most likely ($0.10/pip). At that level you can have a trade stop loss at -200 pips and only lose $20. It's the best starting point for anybody. Additionally, if you SL 20 trades in a row you are only down $200 (or 10% of your account) which isn't that difficult to recover from.
Risking 3% means you are willing to lose $60 per trade. You could do mini lots at this point, which is 0.1 lots (or $1/pip). Let's say you SL on 20 trades in a row. You've just lost $1,200 or 60% of your account. Even veteran traders will go through periods of repeat SL'ing, you are not a special snowflake and are not immune to periods of major drawdown.
Risking 5% means you are willing to lose $100 per trade. SL 20 trades in a row, your account is blown. As Red Foreman would call it - Good job dumbass.

Never risk more than 1% of your account on any trade until you can show that you are either consistently breaking even or making a profit. By consistently, I mean 200 trades minimum. You do 200 trades over a period of time and either break-even or make a profit, then you should be alright to increase your risk.

Unfortunately, this is where many retail traders get greedy and blow it. They will do 10 trades and hit their profit target on 9 of them. They will start seeing huge piles of money in their future and get greedy. They will start taking more risk on their trades than their account can handle.

200 trades of break-even or profitable performance risking 1% per trade. Don't even think about increasing your risk tolerance until you do it. When you get to this point, increase you risk to 2%. Do 1,000 trades at this level and show break-even or profit. If you blow your account, go back down to 1% until you can figure out what the hell you did differently or wrong, fix your strategy, and try again.

Once you clear 1,000 trades at 2%, it's really up to you if you want to increase your risk. I don't recommend it. Even 2% is bordering on gambling to be honest.


LESSON 4 - THE 500 PIP DRAWDOWN RULE

This is a rule I created for myself and it's a great way to help protect your account from blowing.

Sometimes the market goes insane. Like really insane. Insane to the point that your broker can't keep up and they can't hold your orders to the SL and TP levels you specified. They will try, but during a flash crash like we had at the start of January 2019 the rules can sometimes go flying out the window on account of the trading servers being unable to keep up with all the shit that's hitting the fan.

Because of this I live by a rule I call the 500 Pip Drawdown Rule and it's really quite simple - Have enough funds in your account to cover a 500 pip drawdown on your largest open trade. I don't care if you set a SL of -50 pips. During a flash crash that shit sometimes just breaks.

So let's use an example - you open a 0.1 lot short order on USDCAD and set the SL to 50 pips (so you'd only lose $50 if you hit stoploss). An hour later Trump makes some absurd announcement which causes a massive fundamental event on the market. A flash crash happens and over the course of the next few minutes USDCAD spikes up 500 pips, your broker is struggling to keep shit under control and your order slips through the cracks. By the time your broker is able to clear the backlog of orders and activity, your order closes out at 500 pips in the red. You just lost $500 when you intended initially to only risk $50.

It gets kinda scary if you are dealing with whole lot orders. A single order with a 500 pip drawdown is $5,000 gone in an instant. That will decimate many trader accounts.

Remember my statements above about Forex being a cruel bitch of a mistress? I wasn't kidding.

Granted - the above scenario is very rare to actually happen. But glitches to happen from time to time. Broker servers go offline. Weird shit happens which sets off a fundamental shift. Lots of stuff can break your account very quickly if you aren't using proper risk management.


LESSON 5 - UNDERSTAND DIFFERENT TRADING METHODOLOGIES

Generally speaking, there are 3 trading methodologies that traders employ. It's important to figure out what method you intend to use before asking for help. Each has their pros and cons, and you can combine them in a somewhat hybrid methodology but that introduces challenges as well.

In a nutshell:

Now you may be thinking that you want to be a a price action trader - you should still learn the principles and concepts behind TA and FA. Same if you are planning to be a technical trader - you should learn about price action and fundamental analysis. More knowledge is better, always.

With regards to technical analysis, you need to really understand what the different indicators are tell you. It's very easy to misinterpret what an indicator is telling you, which causes you to make a bad trade and lose money. It's also important to understand that every indicator can be tuned to your personal preferences.

You might find, for example, that using Bollinger Bands with the normal 20 period SMA close, 2 standard deviation is not effective for how you look at the chart, but changing that to say a 20 period EMA average price, 1 standard deviation bollinger band indicator could give you significantly more insight.


LESSON 6 - TIMEFRAMES MATTER

Understanding the differences in which timeframes you trade on will make or break your chosen strategy. Some strategies work really well on Daily timeframes (i.e. Ichimoku) but they fall flat on their face if you use them on 1H timeframes, for example.

There is no right or wrong answer on what timeframe is best to trade on. Generally speaking however, there are 2 things to consider:


If you are a total newbie to forex, I suggest you don't trade on anything shorter than the 1H timeframe when you are first learning. Trading on higher timeframes tends to be much more forgiving and profitable per trade. Scalping is a delicate art and requires finesse and can be very challenging when you are first starting out.


LESSON 7 - AUTOBOTS...ROLL OUT!

Yeah...I'm a geek and grew up with the Transformers franchise decades before Michael Bay came along. Deal with it.

Forex bots are called EA's (Expert Advisors). They can be wonderous and devastating at the same time. /Forex is not really the best place to get help with them. That is what /algotrading is useful for. However some of us that lurk on /Forex code EA's and will try to assist when we can.

Anybody can learn to code an EA. But just like how 95% of retail traders fail, I would estimate the same is true for forex bots. Either the strategy doesn't work, the code is buggy, or many other reasons can cause EA's to fail. Because EA's can often times run up hundreds of orders in a very quick period of time, it's critical that you test them repeatedly before letting them lose on a live trading account so they don't blow your account to pieces. You have been warned.

If you want to learn how to code an EA, I suggest you start with MQL. It's a programming language which can be directly interpretted by Meta Trader. The Meta Trader terminal client even gives you a built in IDE for coding EA's in MQL. The downside is it can be buggy and glitchy and caused many frustrating hours of work to figure out what is wrong.

If you don't want to learn MQL, you can code an EA up in just about any programming language. Python is really popular for forex bots for some reason. But that doesn't mean you couldn't do it in something like C++ or Java or hell even something more unusual like JQuery if you really wanted.

I'm not going to get into the finer details of how to code EA's, there are some amazing guides out there. Just be careful with them. They can be your best friend and at the same time also your worst enemy when it comes to forex.

One final note on EA's - don't buy them. Ever. Let me put this into perspective - I create an EA which is literally producing money for me automatically 24/5. If it really is a good EA which is profitable, there is no way in hell I'm selling it. I'm keeping it to myself to make a fortune off of. EA's that are for sale will not work, will blow your account, and the developer who coded it will tell you that's too darn bad but no refunds. Don't ever buy an EA from anybody.

LESSON 8 - BRING ON THE HATERS

You are going to find that this subreddit is frequented by trolls. Some of them will get really nasty. Some of them will threaten you. Some of them will just make you miserable. It's the price you pay for admission to the /Forex club.

If you can't handle it, then I suggest you don't post here. Find a more newbie-friendly site. It sucks, but it's reality.

We often refer to trolls on this subreddit as shitcunts. That's your word of the day. Learn it, love it. Shitcunts.


YOU MADE IT, WELCOME TO FOREX!

If you've made it through all of the above and aren't cringing or getting scared, then welcome aboard the forex train! You will fit in nicely here. Ask your questions and the non-shitcunts of our little corner of reddit will try to help you.

Assuming this post doesn't get nuked and I don't get banned for it, I'll add more lessons to this post over time. Lessons I intend to add in the future:
If there is something else you feel should be included please drop a comment and I'll add it to the above list of pending topics.

Cheers,

Bob



submitted by wafflestation to Forex [link] [comments]

Here is what an EA looks like for those who are wondering

Here is what an EA looks like for those who are wondering
For those of you wondering what an EA (forex automatic trading program) looks like and how it works, here is an example of one I've been working on today:

https://preview.redd.it/6egnrh5y5td21.png?width=1777&format=png&auto=webp&s=675718cb75f73b524ab37fb824689bfd76065ca7
What this particular EA does is tries to identify trends using a few indicators on two timeframes. It then outputs what it thinks of the market in the little panel you see on the top-right corner.

Right now it's saying USDCAD has a weak bearish trend, which makes sense as you can see on the left side of the chart there was a gradual decline yesterday which ended abruptly with the massive dump (that's the Powell interest rate announcement yesterday btw).

If this bot had been live trading, it would have jumped on the downward trend (first candle shown on the chart, roughly 1.32650) and rode it down until the trend turned around 1.31350 before bailing out with 130 pips profit.

Since then the pair has been floundering a bunch as the market hasn't figured out where it's going now. However it looks like it might start turning around and head up - that's what MACD is starting to suggest, the upward momentum is surpassing the downward momentum. So we're likely going to see a rally heading into next week. Because of this uncertainty, the bot would have stopped until it can clearly see a strong trend going.

EA's are very useful because:
  1. They will very quickly show you how good your strategy actually is. You set the rules and they go to work. If your strategy is shit and you've just been getting luck, you'll find out very quickly. If your strategy is good then the bot will make it better as it will be more precise in entering and exiting trades than you can.
  2. They run automatically. The EA will work in your sleep or while you are working or whatever. If your strategy is solid (see above point) then the EA will work 24/5 for you. You won't miss opportunities like you will manually trading.
On this flip side, EA's can be risky because:
  1. If your strategy is bad, the EA will be bad. It likely wreck your trading account if you don't code it properly.
  2. If the coding is bad, you are beyond fucked. Even if the strategy is sound, if it wasn't coded properly or you didn't account for certain edge cases, consider your trading account a write off.
  3. If the computer powering the EA loses poweinternet connectivity/whatever, then it won't be running. That can result in lost opportunities but it's not the end of the world.
  4. Because EA's generally rely solely on technical analysis, they are always lagging behind. They will be a little late to jump on the trend wagon, and they will be a little late to jump off it. So while in the above example the bot would likely have made 130 pips, a human who was using a similar strategy would likely have jumped on earlier and gotten out earlier and probably hit around 150-160 pips profit.

Anyways, this is what an EA looks like. Happy thursday :)

EDIT:

Update as of Friday morning. After doing some more work on it after I posted this yesterday I set the bot live. It identified the entry conditions on GBPCAD and placed a sell order (see the yellow box around the green candle in the screenshot below). At first the market started swinging upwards, but the overall daily trend was down so the bot held it's ground. This morning it's at 80 pips profit and still going strong:

https://preview.redd.it/z8ohpy5btyd21.png?width=1772&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e27928fb8b4ee1802cc5b0c2d992406e082c656



/Bob






submitted by wafflestation to Forex [link] [comments]

Help with currency correlation

Hey guys. How are you? I would like to get your input about something I have been trying to decide.
I CT scalp 5 minute charts, mainly EURUSD. The last week I have tried adding some more pairs to watch and had good results over it, specially at times that EURUSD volatility slows down. But I am having doubts regarding how correlated the pairs I am watching are. I have checked on https://www.myfxbook.com/en/forex-market/correlation .
I am not sure on what timeframe to base the correlation on. After checking many TFs I have decided on these pairs. Based on low correlation, less than +- 50% I have chosen EURUSD, AUDUSD, AUDNZD, EURGBP, USDCAD and GBPUSD (doesnt fit the criteria, but gives me good setups, that why I am questioning also adding more. I like working around the best possible setups and looking at the correlation on how a setup is forming on a pair compared to all others).
Do you think these pairs are not TOO correlated to allow 5 minute scalping? What are your thoughts?
My main concerns are:
1) Whether I should include more pairs even correlated, because I am good at seeing the possible setups and general sentiment because of this.
2) Whether it would split my focus too much.
Thanks!
submitted by Infinity-- to Forex [link] [comments]

USD Bulls

USD weakness is coming to an end and here's why:
  1. DXY accumulating higher lows in daily chart. Broke out of bearish channel. Chart 1
  2. US T-notes, 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 20Y, 30Y, bounced off a higher low. Chart 2
  3. US Bonds, 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, bounced off a higher low. Chart 3 (Add comparison to the chart, USGG5YR:IND and USGG10YR:IND)
  4. Long positions decreasing on COT for NZD, JPY, GBP, AUD Chart 4
  5. Channel breakouts in USDCAD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD. AUDUSD touching 200MA support.
  6. Fed rate hike possibly december 2016 priced in at +50%, which chance of hike increasing linearly up to that from now. Link Institutional traders are going to start accumulating long positions. Markets will start to price this in.
USD bulls guys.
submitted by dofubrain to Forex [link] [comments]

BACKTESTING THREAD

What's good, guys?
Being a full-time trader has allowed me to spend a lot of time backtesting different systems across many pairs.
This post will be the first of many where I share the results of backtesting, and hopefully we can all learn from it. I will be backtesting different systems across 24 pairs.
The systems being backtested include: Cyphers Gartleys Bats Flags Support and Demand
All systems/strategies will be backtested from 2010-2017 on the 30 minute chart, so you can understand how long 1 strategy will take on 1 pair. If you would like me to backtest something for this community, do let me know, and I'll add it into my schedule. For anyone wondering, I use Forex Tester 3 for backtesting purposes.
All results will be recorded on Evernote.
For example, below you will find the results of Cyphers on USDCAD from January 2010, up to May 2010 (still a long way to go). In the next few posts, in reply to this, I will explain the entry reasons for each system, risk management and results.
http://www.evernote.com/l/AjE9mzbdfU1KbZz09ISa67pbkA29BWfzwdA/
As you can tell, I still have about 6.5 years of backtest left, but this system (Cyphers on USDCAD) is proving to be pretty decent, having a win percentage of 50%, however being 4% up for the year so far.
Thanks, and will be looking forward to sharing results with you in the next few posts!
submitted by nzrnrdn to Forex [link] [comments]

Is Trading and Predicting in Foreign Exchange Haraam?

Hello /Islam, I had a question that was bugging me and I was wondering whether or not what I was doing is Haraam or not.
So I trade the Foreign Exchange (Forex) and analyse and "predict" "future" market movements, now I was wondering since I am "predicting" the future (in Financial Markets) and In a way "gambling/betting" [Since you 'can't ever be 101% certain in FX' ;)] my money in the 'hope' that I am right, are these activities considered Haraam when put into the context they are in?
For example here I had "predicted" some possible outcomes and placed money [betted/gambled - technically] on them in the markets:
"Prediction 1"
"Prediction 2"
"Prediction 3"
Since they have come true and also since when someone "predicts" something they technically have made a pact with the Jinn, and that is Haraam. Also I was reading the Holy Quran today and came across the following verse which furthered my curiosity on whether it included predicting future market movements? Or does it concern "other future events" taking place?
"Say: None in the Heavens and the Earth knows the Ghaib(Unseen) except Allah, nor can they perceive when they shall be resurrected." (al-Naml 27-65)
My reason to think it is not Haraam stems from this:
Al-Kattaabi said: The Prophet(Pbuh) explained that the reason why the fortuneteller sometimes get's it right is that the Jinn tells him something that he has heard by eavesdropping on the angels and he adds lies to that to embellish what he heard. So occasionally he gets it right but usually it is wrong. Fath al-Baari, 10.219,220
This is because I haven't added lies or been told by Jinns about future events in the markets, unless my father is a Jinn, since I learned trading from him, but this ^ makes me think trading is not Haraam.
Now I know certain brokers offer "Islamic Accounts" etc where you aren't charged interest for swaps etc. but that is not what concerns me, what concerns me more is whether or not what I do day in day out is Haraam & the money I earn from this is Haraam? :|
Please excuse my behaviour and language if you have seen me be inappropriate anywhere on the interweb as we all have flaws and strive to be the best we can despite these setbacks. :'{
submitted by ArabMonetaryFund to islam [link] [comments]

Setups This Week (8th May - 12th May)

Hey all, I know I said I'd be back for last week but I realized that I'd just be forcing myself to post premature ideas that are lower in 'quality' - especially since my ideas are usually long-term, so that didn't really sit well with me.
Recap from last week
1) USDCAD: Oh boy, if I could hear the 'X' sound from America's Got Talent on cue, I would need it right about now. Though the USD has been under-performing lately, the CAD took that sentiment and dialed it up to 10 resulting in a pair that has broken through the daily local maximum and looking towards 1.40. Shit happens right? Graph
2) EURCAD: Unlike it's older brother that is still respecting the structure (EURUSD), the strength of the EUR following the first round of the French elections combined with CAD's weakness has resulted in a massive jump that has all but invalidated the ABCD pattern. However, if you managed to take the aggressive entry I posted on the idea, you would have gotten all 600 pips on the C-D leg completion which is a beautiful result for a 9 day trade. Graph
New Setups
1) GBPUSD: What we can see here is a very clear channel that the pair has been trading in since the Brexit vote almost one year ago. From this, we can use fibonacci retracements to outline very clear and distinct levels that the price is using to bounce off of. As of today, the price seems to be entering a rather important decision point where it may attempt to break through the 0.618 level - indicating a rather significant bullish run for the pair. The alternative is that it may attempt to test the 0.5 level which is the border between the two adjacent channels, and from here it can either bounce upwards to test the 0.618 level again or it can break through it downwards indicating that the pair will likely stay in this lower channel.
The GBP has been rallying as of late but the USD has also been gaining some traction. I would predict that although the USD has shown signs of life, it may be a short lived run compared to the GBP. So with regards to this structure, I would say that the price is headed back down to the 0.5 level to test it before rallying up and over the 0.618 level. The RSI indicates that the pair is very oversold so it seems to support this prediction of a brief bearish trend followed by an OVERALL bullish trend . I stress that word because we can always expect some consolidation and brief reversals off the major S&R levels outlined here. Assuming the price breaks through the 0.618 level, we'll be analyzing the upper channel and using its fibonacci retracements (marked in blue) to determine the possible targets. Upper play Entry: 1.29656 TP: 1.30953, 1.32023, 1.33320 SL: 1.29042 -- Lower Play Entry: 1.28618 TP: 1.27613 SL: 1.28910 Graph
2) EURCHF: I've never traded this pair, but I drew out the formation of the falling wedge quite a while ago and knew that the Euro's recent massive surge must have broken through it. This is a very interesting situation as it means that the price is trying to rally back to its recent maximum at 1.19 - and possibly even beyond that. The ones that have been following my ideas in the past will have noticed that I avoid trading the news so it wasn't a realistic idea to assume that the price would have broken through the way it did (we'd be gambling if we tried to trade the elections). However now that it has, I can see it hitting these 3 strong daily S&R levels with a bit of consolidation in between. The reason why this entry is a little higher than usual is because we can see a clear area of consolidation (marked by the blue rectangle ) where the price may experience a similar fate. If that area is cleared, then we can reasonably expect the aforementioned targets to be hit with ease. Setup Entry: 1.09031 SL: 1.08015 TP: 1.09749, 1.11050, 1.12054 Graph
I really do appreciate all the kind words and support from a lot of people on the sub and I'm going to try and do these posts as much as I can, but sometimes I'm just waiting for pairs to show their hand so I can make a reasonable prediction. I feel like I've been on point more often than not, and forcing the ideas when they're not ready will almost certainly result in a dip in quality. That said, there are a lot of my older long-term ideas that are currently panning out (due to their nature) and unless you're going through my posts, some of you won't even get to see them so here are some of the older posts:
20th - 24th March
27th - 31st March
2nd - 7th April
17th-21st April
24th - 28th April
I wish it was, but this isn't the gospel so please take the necessary precautions when trading
Have a good week and good luck!
submitted by Invictavis to Forex [link] [comments]

How I use Volatility to my advantage (UK US open, late US etc)

[Only applies to M30 and lower]
What is volatility?
Volatility is the degree of variation in price of a given asset on a defined timeframe. When price moves quickly, market volatility increases. When price consolidates, market volatility decreases (simple definition). It is like the speedometer in our cars.
I usually add an Average True Range (ATR) on my charts to gauge approximately market volatility or market nervousness. However, it is not necessary, when you look at a chart you are able to tell if price is spiking, trending or consolidating.
Volatility is part of any strategy. It gives an expectancy toward future price action. In general, when market volatility is low, we expect significant support and resistance levels to hold price in a range. And when market volatility is high, we expect price to break these levels.
Volatility patterns
Fortunately, in the Forex market, daily volatility is predictable. We tend to see volatility peaks around major markets openings, which are the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and the Japanese Exchange. At the late hours of these markets, volatility tends to decrease.
These fundamental patterns are the most exploitable patterns in the Forex market. Yes, at least more exploitable than deceitful technical signals you are looking for. And they happen almost every day. However, there are exceptions. For example, we do not expect volatility peak to happen when countries of these big markets are on bank holiday.
EURUSD hourly volatility
The chart above shows the 4-weeks hourly volatility for the EUUSD pair. It is the average in pip of the difference between the highest and the lowest price of each hour of the day, over four weeks. Each bar represents the average in hourly range over four weeks.
There are two major peaks corresponding to the LSE and the NYSE openings.
Since the EUUSD is the most traded pair, we consider its volatility as "market volatility". In fact, the hourly volatility chart of the other pairs gives approximately the same pattern.
USDCAD hourly volatility
These charts were taken in May 2016. Take a look at Mataf.net’s volatility tool and type four (for four weeks) in the entry box. You will see approximately this same pattern in hourly volatility, with the two major peaks (UK and US opens) and decreasing volatility starting from the mid-US session. (Currently the pattern is disturbed by the brexit monster volatility, it will become clear again within few weeks)
We also have decreased volatility during the Asian session when there is no major news release coming from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) or the Bank Of Japan (BOJ).
Asian sessions
These charts tell us market volatility is predictable. This leads us to define two principles:
First Principle: Around major markets openings (active time), market volatility tends to surge. We expect to see range breakouts, spikes or rallies. It is the best time to trade breakouts i.e., buying new highs and selling new lows.
Second Principle: During the late hours of major markets sessions and when major markets are closed (quiet time), market volatility tends to decrease considerably. We expect to see trading range or congestion in price action. It is the best time to range-trade i.e., buying the lows and selling the highs.
principles
Any trading strategy or system has to adapt to these variations in volatility to perform over time. If you are struggling with a particular strategy, maybe you are ignoring these changes in volatility.
How volatility patterns can help in improving your trading?
One cannot apply a strategy any time and expect to be profitable. When we simulate an automated and intraday trading system over three months without time filtering, we will notice the system is only profitable at certain hours of the day. This simply reflects intraday volatility variations.
You have to determine if your trading strategy is a trend following method or a range trading one.
If your strategy is a trend following approach, you will want to only trade around major markets openings to maximize profits. Otherwise, you will tend to give back profits as price slows down in the mid-session and market volatility decrease.
If your strategy is a range trading or reversal approach, you will want to only trade during quiet market time and avoid trading around market openings or around news releases.
Less trades maximize profits. Most of my trading sessions last less than one hour.
I made a portable document of this.
submitted by alm_hd to Forex [link] [comments]

I Kinda knew where the market is going last week (Week-3), Made +4.5% and left money on the table anyway.

Hello fellow Traders,
I Finally made a Profitable week since forever,
Week 1 Thread : https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/6053oy/i_kinda_knew_where_the_market_is_going_last_week/
Week 2 Thread : https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/61gv37/i_kinda_knew_where_the_market_is_going_last_week/
Last Week Analysis
http://imgur.com/a/T2eMB
Last Week Trades
http://imgur.com/a/INzSQ
This Weekend Analysis for the Week Ahead
http://imgur.com/a/6IQ8i
the two lessons i learned last week i applied them partially,
Lesson 1 : Try Not to miss a trade it is the same like losing money
Missed a lot out of fear and i think the lake of experince of chart time
Lesson 2 : DON'T BE GREEDY
I Lost an easy 2% win because i didn't follow it and extended my TP target on USDCAD, Applied it to other Pairs though like the AUDUSD
I have a question purely out of greed (Really?)
at what point should i increase my risk from 1% to 2%?
Or Should i take the Extra 1% in scaling in a trade? how to scale though when the target is 2:1 ??
about programming mql4,
i did a few robots on some strategies i made earlier in the forex path.
and i did backtest , Account Blown.
Actually it is good way for checking the validity if a strategy without wasting a lot of time forward testing it,
Manual back test is also controlled by emotions so i saw all my strategies winners but they never was
That give me a lot of time to test new strategies
That is it this weekend, I hope you guys have a good week and
please review my analysis for the week ahead and share your advice with me.
The charts still till me go bearish on the USD. let's wait and see
submitted by PhDinWastingTime to Forex [link] [comments]

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